schuchert - IterationPlanningSimulationInstructions

Introduction

Getting Started

Tables

Example

Velocity Graph

Burn-Down Chart

Story Points Completed

Finishing

Iterations 1 - 2

Iteration 3 - 5

Iterations 6 - 9

Iterations 10+

Example Summary

This is a simple game using dice to simulate a project(what if you do not have dice). The primary goal is to give the players:

a basic understanding of what goes into and comes out of an iteration
what happens when/if you get less done that you had planned
what happens when/if you get more done that you had planned
provide some actual numbers to practice creating burn-down charts

First we need to get some preliminary data:

ITSP = Use the stories you've already created and add up the total story points.
IVG = You've already sequenced your stories and put them into initial "buckets". Use the bucket size for 1-week iterations. If you don't have a bucket size, then divide your total points by 10 and round down (this is not a general way to calculate preliminary velocity, just a way to get a number for a simulation)

We want to simulate a project either until it completes or for a fixed amount of time. We'll start with your ITSP (Initial Total Story Points) and assume we're going to complete IV (Initial Velocity) story points. What actually happens will be determine randomly using dice and tables (provided below).

For each iteration, we'll use the values from the previous iteration along with some random dice values to determine what actually happened in the given iteration. We'll keep doing this until you "run out of story points" or time runs out. What we'll be calculating is:

Actual velocity versus what we predicted
Number of story points added or removed
Changes to estimates on existing story points.

After that, we'll make a few graphs to track the progress of the project.

If during any iteration your total remaining story points is < half of your predicted velocity, then you can assume you finished during that iteration.

Actual	Roll	Change	Story	Roll	Change	+/- Story Points
Velocity	1	-3d6	Points	1	-3d6	Roll 1 = 3d6
equals	2	-2d6	Added	2	-2d6	Roll 2 = 3d6
IVG	3	-1d6	or	3	-1d6	Change = Roll 1 - Roll 2
+/-	4	+1d6	Removed	4	+1d6	can be
-->	5	+2d6	-->	5	+2d6	positive
	6	+3d6		6	+3d6	or negative

Actual	Roll	Change	Story	Roll	Change	+/- Story Points
Velocity	1	-2d6	Points	1	-3d6	Roll 1 = 2d6
equals	2	-1d6	Added	2	-2d6	Roll 2 = 2d6
IVG	3	-1d6	or	3	-1d6	Change = Roll 1 - Roll 2
+/-	4	+1d6	Removed	4	+1d6	can be
-->	5	+1d6	-->	5	+2d6	positive
	6	+2d6		6	+3d6	or negative

Actual	Roll	Change	Story	Roll	Change	+/- Story Points
Velocity	1	-2d6	Points	1	-1d6	Roll 1 = 2d6
equals	2	-1d6	Added	2	-1d6	Roll 2 = 2d6
IVG	3	0	or	3	0	Change = Roll 1 - Roll 2
+/-	4	0	Removed	4	0	can be
-->	5	+1d6	-->	5	+1d6	positive
	6	+2d6		6	+1d6	or negative

Actual	Roll	Change	Story	Roll	Change	+/- Story Points
Velocity	1	-1d6	Points	1	-1d6	Roll 1 = 1d6
equals	2	-1d6 / 2	Added	2	-1d6 / 2	Roll 2 = 1d6
IVG	3	0	or	3	0	Change = Roll 1 - Roll 2
+/-	4	0	Removed	4	0	can be
-->	5	+1d6 / 2	-->	5	+1d6 / 2	positive
	6	+1d6		6	+1d6	or negative

Iteration 1

Remaining Story Points = 65 (what we started with)
Velocity = 10 (guess - or based on planning poker)

Actual Velocity
Roll 1d6 --> 6. The table says add 3d6 (rolled 14)
Actual Velocity = 10 + 14 --> 24 (we completed 24 story points)

Story Points Added/Removed
Roll 1d6 --> 5. The table says add 2d6 (rolled 9), so we added 9 more story points of work

Changes to Estimates
Roll 1 = 8, Roll 2 = 7, Change = 8 - 7 --> +1

Story Points Remaining
Initial = 65 - completed (24) + points added/removed (9) + Changes (1) --> 51 points

Iteration 2

Story Points Remaining = 51
Velocity = 24 (from iteration 2)

Actual Velocity
Previous = 24, Roll = 2, -2d6 (9), actual velocity = 15

Story Points Added/Removed
Roll = 6, +3d6 (8)

Changes to Estimates
Roll 1 = 9, Roll 2 = 7 --> +2

Story Points Remaining
Initial = 51 - completed (15) + points added/removed (8) + changes(2) --> 46

Iteration 3
(Note we use new tables)

Story Points Remaining = 46
Velocity = 15

Actual Velocity
Roll 1d6 (5) --> +1d6 (1) --> 15 + 1 --> 16

Story Points Added/Removed
Roll 1d6 (3) --> -1d6 --> -4

Changes to Estimates
Roll 1 (2d6) = 10, Roll 2 (2d6) = 12, Roll 1 - Roll 2 = -2

Story Points Remaining
Initial = 46 - completed (16) + points added/removed (-4) + changes(-2) --> 24

Iteration 4

Story Points Remaining = 24
Velocity = 15

Actual Velocity
Roll 1d6 = 1 --> -2d6 (4) --> 15 - 4 --> 11

Story Points Added/Removed
Roll 1d6 (1) --> -2d6 (-9)

Changes to Estimates
Roll 1 = 17, Roll 2 = 8, 17 - 8 = 9

Story Points Remaining
Initial = 24 - completed (11) + points added/removed(-9) + changed(9) --> 15

Iteration 5

Story Points Remaining = 15
Velocity = 11

Actual Velocity
Roll 1d6 (4) --> +1d6 (6) --> 17

Story Points Added/Removed
Roll 1d6 (3) --> -1d6 (-5)

Changes to Estimates
Roll 1 = 15, Roll 2 = 12 --> +3

Story Points Remaining
Initial = 15 - completed (17) + points added/removed (-5) + changes(3) ==> -4 (we finished!)

A velocity graph charts velocity over iterations. You can use it to:

Estimate future velocity based on previous iterations
- Average of past three
- Worst three
- Best three
Research drastic changes
See if the project is stabilizing or not

Iteration to iteration, how is your project progressing to completion? The burn-down chart gives you an idea of what is happening on your project.

If there is a gradual decline, you can use it to project end times.
If it wildly fluctuates, you probably need some controls on the user stories going on
If it seems there is a discrepancy between how much work is getting done and the chart, it might suggest hidden work or work that is just not being considered as part of the overall effort

Est. Velocity

Estimate Changes

This is another way to look at work. In this case we're looking at the work completed, rather than the work remaining.

If the slope of this graph is very different from the reverse of the slope of the burn-down chart, that indicates that there was some amount of churn in stories, either the adding or removing stories, or the estimates